Asia’s food security in 2050 is in crisis, says EEPSEA study

By 2050, food security in Asian countries are in bleak situation as the extreme weather events such as drought, sea level rise, stronger typhoons and increasing sea surface temperature will badly affect food production, senior economic scientist Benoit Laplante of Asian Development Bank said.

 

By Rhaydz Barcia

 

Asia home of 3.9 billion people which account of 58 percent of the world’s population is the most vulnerable against the worst impact of climate change according to the study of the scientists presented in the concluded Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia held at Apsara Angkor Hotel Resort and Conference in Siem Reap, Cambodia spearheaded by Herminia Francisco, EEPSEA executive director.

Laplante said that at one meter sea level rise it will be impacted to huge land mass or about two-kilomoter low lying areas of SE Asian nations.

The most vulnerable countries of sea level rise were Vietnam, Philippines, China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia, all rice producing nations.

“Get ready as Asian countries are the most affected by climate change. At one-meter sea level rise it will be impacted in rice producing countries which will badly affecting food security of Southeast Asian countries by 2050 or in mid-century,” Laplante said told the participants of Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia where new research presented during the conference.

Vietnam, a major rice producer and exporter however the country’s food security will be in bleak situation in the next decade as seawater intrusion is gobbling up the farmlands gradually according to Laplante.

Rice is the most important crop in Vietnam and considered as the country’s national security with 43.2 million ton of rice and exported 8.1 million of milled rice in neighbouring countries specifically in Philippines.

The Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta regions are the biggest rice production accounted for 68.4 percent of Vietnam’s rice cultivated areas and 71.3 percent of rice quantity in comparison with national rice production.) Any change in rice production in this areas, food security in Vietnam will be threatened seriously due to salinity.

According to the study made by Vo Thanh Danh, dean of School of Economics and Business Administration of Can Tho University and head of Dragon Mekong Institute for Climate Change Studies, approximately 1.7 million hectares of the Vietnam Mekong Delta have already become “salinised”.

“Sea water intrusion is moving inland. More than 50 percent of agricultural area is affected by sea water intrusion,” he said.

Annually, flooding inundates two million hectares and affects more than 11 million people in the Delta. According to Professor Danh’s study, the Delta’s terrain has limitations that result in the inundation of between 1.4 million and 1.9 million hectares of land in upstream areas, and the salination of between 1.2 and 1.6 million hectares of land along coastal areas.

The impacts of climate change on rice production in 2020 to 2050 according to Vietnamese scientist forecasted to reduce by 0.65 ton per hectare (11.8 percent in spring. In this case Vietnam will be no longer rice exportation and food security country if no integrated solutions are conducted to protect rice yield and adapt to climate change.

The challenges are even greater where salt stress persists throughout the season. The Mekong Delta is Vietnamese rice bowl, an agriculture area that pumps out 38 percent of the country’s annual food crop form just ten percent of its total land mass.

The Red River Delta (RRD) and Mekong River Delta (MRD) regions accounted for 68.4 percent of cultivated areas and 71.3 percent of rice quantity. In normal cultivated condition, trend of rice yield in all season and both RRD and MRD will reduce up to 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for all given scenarios of climate change and sea level rise.

Under the one meter sea level rise in RRD scenario rice quantity will reduce from 73.79 thousand tons to 376.79 thousand tons in prediction while in MRD, it will reduce from 1.06-1.57 million ton of rice during 2020-2050 in prediction.

Spring rice was more affected by climate change than wet rice in RRD; summer rice more vulnerable to climate change than spring rice in MRD. Vietnam potentially loss 5.62 percent (1.14 million ton) in 2020, 7.68 percent (1.59 million ton) in 2030 and 8.61 percent (1,75 million ton ) in 2050 due to loss in rice yield in RRD and MRD.

Any change in rice production in RRD and MRD, Vietnam will face to food insecurity and rice exportation. Proper reclamation measures are needed to bring the soil back to productivity, according to scientist.

This normally involves enormous investment to amend the soil and involves adding gypsum or other chemicals to free salt from alkaline and sodic soil, followed by proper flushing with fresh water and drainage.

To protect the agricultural land, he said that there is a need to build a permanent dike to help the farmers in mitigating process against the effect of climate change in 100 years.

Another challenges facing by the SE Asian countries is drought wherein long dry spell also affecting in Indonesia according to Indonesian scientists Akhmad Faqih. Indonesia is one of agricultural economies, experiences various problems such as harvest failure due to drought, floods and pests.

He said that Indonesia has two climate seasons but the climate anomaly is getting intense as dry season taking longer but the worst occurrence of drought took place in 1991 and lasted until in 1994.

“Before dry season affect in my country for nine to 10 months. But the climate anomaly is very sceptical now as we’re experiencing longer dry seasons affecting our rice production,” Faqih said.

In China, the adverse impact of weather shocks resulted to poor crop yields this situation driven rural-urban migration according to scientist Yazhen Gong of Renmin University China.

“Weather shocks significantly have an overall effect on migration. Agricultural production in China largely affected by weather conditions which reduced crop yields that triggered massive migration in China.

Changes in economic conditions between rural and urban areas and other socio-economic conditions) were significant for rural-urban migration in China the study said.

“Weather-driven migration ought to be a potentially important policy issue in China, as weather shocks could accelerate rural-urban migration, which has been mainly driven by rural-urban income disparities and disparities in economic development across regions,” Yazhen said.

Mitigation and adaptation measures in Southeast Asian countries requires bigger budget to ensure food security of the developing countries facing extreme climate according to economist.

Laplante said that based on Asian Development Bank (ADB) study the demand for new and additional funds to support adaptation in Asia and the Pacific is likely in the range $30 billion to $50 billion per year through mid-century.

The UN Green Climate Fund aims to raise $100 billion per year by 2020 (established but not yet operating) to help the developing countries to adapt the extreme climate.

According to United Nations Population Division study, over 3.9 billion people live in the Asia Pacific region or accounts for 58 percent of the world’s population most vulnerable against the adverse impact of climate change.

In 2010 study of World Bank, East Asia and the Pacific (including Southeast Asia) will bear the brunt of the adaptation costs projected to be from $ 70 billion to $ 100 billion a year from 2010 to 2050.

Coastal zones and infrastructure account for the highest share of the adaptation costs in these regions. Financial support to mitigation continues to be larger than for adaptation and financial support to adaptation falls considerably short than estimated needs, the scientists said.