Globally, economic losses from disasters are now reaching an average of US$250 billion to US$300 billion annually, according to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction prepared and released on March 4 by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, amongst other factors, global climate change is already modifying hazard levels and exacerbating disaster risks. By 2050, it is estimated that 40 per cent of the global population will be living in river basins that experience severe water stress, particularly in Africa and Asia.
Future losses are now estimated at US$314 billion in the built environment alone, according to the report. This is the amount that countries should set aside each year to cover future disaster losses.
An investment of US$6 billion annually in disaster risk management would result in avoided losses of US$360 billion over the next 15 years, it said. The report states that this US$6 billion is just 0.1% of total forecast expenditure of US$6 trillion annually on new infrastructure.
“We are playing with fire. There is a very real possibility that disaster risk, fuelled by climate change, will reach a tipping point beyond which the effort and resources necessary to reduce it will exceed the capacity of future generations,” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement at the launch of the report. “The world must find solutions by reaching agreements on disaster risk management, long-term sustainable development goals and climate change.”
Next week, the Secretary General will join climate change and disaster experts at the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan.
“The 2015 Global Assessment Report demonstrates clearly that many countries face significant challenges because of their inability to manage the fiscal burden created by large-scale disaster events,” a statement by Margareta Wahlstrom, head of UNISDR said, adding that small island states have a perennial struggle on their hands to survive intense cyclonic wind and storm surges driven by warming rising seas.
“ The funds which need to be set aside to cover future losses exceed some countries’ total annual expenditure on health, education and social protection. Disaster risk is undermining the capacity of many countries to make the capital investment and social expenditures necessary to develop sustainably,” Wahlstrom stated.
GAR15 finds that governments need to be setting aside US$314 billion every year to meet annual average losses from just earthquakes, tsunamis, tropical cyclones and river flooding. This is a major lost opportunity for financing poverty reduction programs in the areas of health and education.
Another key finding is that the majority of governments are too focused on managing disasters rather than tackling the underlying drivers of disaster risk such as poverty, climate change, the decline of protective eco-systems, poor urban planning and land use, and lack of building codes which contribute significantly to the creation of risk.
Extensive disaster risk is magnified by drivers such as badly planned and managed urban development, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality, vulnerable rural livelihoods and weak governance. As a result, it continues to increase.
Building back better, a continuing challenge in the Philippines
In November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the strongest tropical cyclone in recored history to make landfall in the Philippines left 7,986,11 with more than 1,000 people still missing according to the figures from the National Disaster Rosk Reduction Management Council. At least 4.1 million people were displaced.
The total economic losses from Typhoon Haiyan have been estimated at US$10 billion, over ten times the losses associated with Typhoon Bopha of 2012. Of the 4.1 million people displaced, little more than 100,000—or around 1 per cent—were able to move to shelters. The remaining 4 million found lodging with host families or in other private, temporary accommodation.
The UNDRR report, however, said that six months after the disaster, more than 2 million people were still living in temporary accommodation. Apart from housing issues, access to education, health facilities, transport, markets and income as well as unclear tenure and property arrangements impeded the return of displaced people. It has long been recognized that new vulnerabilities can be generated in the gap between initial displacement and longer-term recovery and reconstruction.
The report stated that in the case of Haiyan, of the US$776 million requested for recovery, only 61 per cent of funding had been received by August 2014. While recovery receives more attention and funding than other disaster risk management strategies it remains under-resourced, and this gap may even widen as the human and economic cost of disasters continues to increase.
“ Understanding the costs and benefits of managing disasters will become a key tool for future success. This means understanding and measuring the trade-offs implicit in decisions; their benefits in terms of reduced poverty and inequality, environmental sustainability, economic development and social progress; and who retains the risks, who bears the costs and who reaps the benefits,” the global assessment report stated.
If managing disaster risks can enable societies to learn from the past in order to change the future, it may hold the key to sustainable development, it added.
The reduction of poverty, the improvement of health and education for all, the achievement of sustainable and equitable economic growth and the protection of the health of the planet now depend on the management of disaster risks in the day-to-day development decisions of governments, companies, investors, civil society organizations, households and individuals.
“Strengthened disaster risk reduction, therefore, is essential to make development sustainable,” the report said.
Report by Imelda V. Abano
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