For so many years, people all over the world have noticed the impact of climate change, including increasing temperatures, devastating floods and landslides, severe droughts, rising seas and increasing frequency of typhoons. Scientists have long predicted that natural disaster aggravated by the changing climate would hit people hard, in a way that would exact large human toll and widespread destruction.
In the Asia and the Pacific region, alone, countries experienced some of the most damaging disasters in recent decades, with alarming consequences for human welfare. At the same time, the climate in the region has been changing.
According to the new Asian Development Bank (ADB) study released this month, there are three main disaster risk factors behind the increased frequency of intense natural disasters -rising population exposure, greater population vulnerability, and increasing climate-related hazards.
Natural disasters are on the rise worldwide. There are more and more intense natural disasters—which are defined to cause at least 100 deaths or to affect the basic survival needs of at least 1,000 people—resulting from floods and storms as well as droughts and heat waves, according to the ADB’s study Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific.
The study stated that recent floods and storms in Australia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand have wreaked havoc. Some have also shaken up regional and global economies—the great floods of 2011 in Thailand cost the economy $45.5 billion or over 13% of gross domestic product in losses and damages. These disasters are threatening to erode the otherwise striking progress in poverty reduction of recent decades in Asia and the Pacific.
It is hydrometeorological (e.g., floods, storms) and climatological disasters (e.g., droughts), rather than the geophysical disasters (e.g., earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), that have been trending upwards in recent decades, the study noted.
This pattern suggests, but obviously does not prove, a possible connection with man-made climate change. This possible connection has led to widespread attention. Some research suggests that there is a relationship. Others have taken the view that only the damage costs—and not the climate hazards themselves—are rising, largely because of increasing populations and higher infrastructure costs, rather than because of climate change.
“ Our results suggest that all three factors—rising population exposure, population vulnerability, and changing climate—may play a role in explaining the rising frequency of intense climate-related disasters in Asia and the Pacific. While climatological disasters are clearly associated with changing temperature, hydrometeorological disasters are most clearly associated with rising exposure,” the study said.
In the Philippines, for instance, typhoons and landslide has had a devastating impact wherein 2,360 people were killed, displacing thousands and destroying millions of worth of infrastructure in 2012. The country topped the lists of countries with the highest mortality rate due to natural disasters, according to the Citizens’ Disaster Response Center (CDRC).
Poor people pay the price
The brutal reality is that poor people, who often have less adaptive capacity, are frequently more vulnerable to climate-related hazards. They live with the constant threat of homelessness, risks of injury and death, crop devastation and destruction of livelihood and communities due to weather-related disasters.
“ The poor are more vulnerable due to lack of information, skills, technology, infrastructure, and social capital. Flash floods commonly cause more fatalities in poorer communities than those better off. And when people living in risk-prone areas depend on their livelihoods on activities directly affected by such hazards, it can amplify the disaster risk and damage, “ the ADB study said.
Exposure is increasing as more and more people in Asia and the Pacific locate themselves in hazardous areas such as booming megacities, on deltas, or along coastlines and rivers. Entire new settlements may be built in harm’s way, where even basic infrastructure is lacking, and disaster management may not seem urgent until the next lethal event occurs, the study added.
Climate trends and patterns in PHL
An archipelago of 7,100 islands with a vast number of low-lying areas and steep inland terrain, the Philippines is a global hotspot for hydrometeorological disasters. The United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security ranked it third in the world on disaster risk in 2011.
Within Asia and the Pacific, the Philippines experienced the fourth highest frequency (98) of intense hydrological disasters during 1971–2010, topped only by Indonesia (124), India (167), and the PRC (172), all of which have much larger land areas. But the Philippines experienced the highest frequency (218) of intense meteorological disasters in the region during the same time.
The Philippines has one of the longest coastlines in the world (32,400 km), with its eastern seaboard on the Pacific, the ocean basin with the highest annual frequency of tropical cyclones north of the equator.
In the Philippines, it is not the frequency, but the intensity of relatively more extreme events that is on the rise. The path of cyclones has changed, tropical cyclones of weaker intensity now have very intense associated rains, and the frequency of hot days and warm nights is increasing. And climate models suggest that the increasing trend in the frequency of hot days will continue.
The Manila Observatory reports that by 2020 there will be an increase or no change in average rainfall in Luzon, and a decrease in average rainfall in most other parts of the country.
“ By 2050, it is expected that the Visayas and Mindanao will be drier than normal. For extreme precipitation in the Philippines, the frequency of days with heavy precipitation is expected to increase significantly by 2020 and 2050 amid global warming,” the ADB study said.
Bracing for more
People in the Asia and the Pacific will have to brace themselves for more frequent and more ferocious natural disasters in the coming years.
According to the analysis of the ADB study , the frequency of intense climate-related disasters is higher in Asia and the Pacific than other regions Similarly, the magnitude of intense, climate-related disasters is also highest in Asia and the Pacific. Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, India, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Viet Nam are at exceptional risk, the study noted.
“ The frequency of intense natural disasters generally increased during 1971–2010. Intense natural disasters in Asia and the Pacific, which accounted for 72% of the frequency of intense natural disasters recorded during 1971–2010 in the region, represented more than half of the increase in frequency of intense natural disasters recorded globally from 1971–1980 to 2001–2010,” the study noted.
The frequency of intense disasters is also on the rise in the Philippines, which sits in the typhoon belt. Natural disaster events accounted for most (86%) of the intense natural disasters in the country during 1971–2010. The frequency of these disasters more than doubled from 1971–1980 to 2001–2010, fully accounting for the total rise in frequency of intense natural disasters recorded in the country.
The study also said that the damage inflicted by a given natural disaster is also increasing alongside frequency. The frequency of people “affected” or “temporarily displaced” by intense disasters per year increased to 234 million people per year in 2001–2010, up by 76.5% from 1971 to 1980. Two-thirds of this increase is due to the rise in people affected by intense disasters.
Of the total increase in the frequency of people affected by intense disasters from 1971– 1980 to 2001–2010, 90% is in Asia and the Pacific. The region also accounted for over half of the 3 million lives lost to intense disasters during 1971–2010, as well as half of the increase in the global number of deaths from 1971–1980 to 2001–2010. The majority of people affected by (95.8%) and deaths due to intense disasters (91.5%) in the region during 1971–2010 are in low and lower-middle-income countries.
“ By chronicling the rising frequency of hydrometeorological events globally in Asia and the Pacific and in the Philippines, this paper draws attention to the risk these growing disasters pose for development,” it said.
A need to mitigate and adapt
Rosa Perez, a climate scientist from the Manila Observatory told the Philippine EnviroNews that while there is a frequency and intensity of natural disasters amid the spectre of climate change, governments needs to focus on better mitigation and adaptation measures.
“ Disaster risk reduction and climate risk adaptation could help us to lessen the damages of climate change impacts,” said Perez, also one of the authors of the ADB study.
Perez explained that for instance, mapping flood prone areas and potentially flood prone areas will inform decision-making and planning regarding land-use.
“ It makes sense to build settlements on areas not usually flooded, or establishing setbacks (from river banks or coast) so that regular and potential flooding (e.g. floods from sea level rise) will not interrupt services and businesses,” she said. “Structural measures such as building protective floodgates and flood control infrastructures can also help.”
Non-structural measures include access to information (such as climate projections and accurate weather forecasts), early warning systems both for droughts and floods may also help. There are other measures, which can be better customized for a particular place or system if we do a risk/vulnerability assessment to determine the current and potential risks that a system is or will be facing, Perez added.
Earlier, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) has allotted about US$629 million to build and strengthen dykes, dredge heavily silted rivers and waterways as well as install pumps around Metro Manila and other areas in the country.
Perez explained that mitigation and adaptation must be integrated in the development plans. Some examples of mitigation measures she suggested are: use of renewable energy; energy efficiency; planting trees (appropriate species).
Perez also suggested some adaptation measures which include: efficient use of water resources; adapting building codes and infrastructure designs (for examples, roads) to future climate conditions and extreme weather events; developing drought or flood tolerant crops; and disaster risk reduction and management.
“ These measures can be integrated with, for example comprehensive land use plans, comprehensive development plans, environmental impact assessments, and other plans that the LGUs or national government prepares,” Perez explained. “ Again, a risk and vulnerability assessments should be part of the preparation of mitigation and adaptation planning to determine the appropriate measures to be made part of the plans. More importantly, budgetary support (funding) needs to be provided.”
The ADB study concludes that the emerging phenomenon should be a serious concern for governments, the development community, and all societies.
“ With the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and man-made climate change figuring prominently in the new trend, climate adaptation and mitigation need to become an integral part of natural disaster strategies and our approach to development,” it said.
Written by: Imelda V. Abano
photo credit: EV Espirituand Mau Victa, PNEJ members
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