While the United Nations praised governments for putting forward their national climate action plans or the so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the pledges made so far are not enough to keeping a global temperature rise to under 2 degrees Celsius.
Analysis of the collective impact of the climate action plans submitted last October 1by 146 countries released on Friday (October 30) by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) shows that countries are taking climate action seriously, but more ambition is needed.
One month from now, world leaders will make a new attempt at a climate deal in Paris, France.
The analysis shows that the cumulative commitments by countries will bring global average emissions per capita down by as much as 8% in 2025 and 9% by 2030. Additionally, the analysis states that it still remains within our collective reach to cost effectively meet the stated objective of limiting a global temperature rise to less than 2°C.
“These INDCs–or national climate action plans–represent a clear and determined down-payment on a new era of climate ambition from the global community of nations. Governments from all corners of the Earth have signalled through their INDCs that they are determined to play their part according to their national circumstances and capabilities,” said UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
Fully implemented, Figueres said these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions: as a floor they provide a foundation upon which ever higher ambition can be built.
“I am confident that these INDCs are not the final word in what countries are ready to do and achieve over time–the journey to a climate safe-future is underway and the Paris agreement to be inked in Paris can confirm, and catalyze that transition,” Figueres added.
The analysis captures the overall impact of national climate plans covering 146 countries as of 1 October 2015. This comprises 119 separate INDCs from 147 Parties to the UNFCCC, including the EU, a single Party representing 28 countries. Since then, more INDCs have been submitted and submissions are likely to continue.
The 146 plans include all developed nations and three quarters of developing countries under the UNFCCC, covering 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions – almost four times the level of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the world’s first international emission reduction treaty that required emissions cuts from industrialized countries.
One of the key findings is that the INDCs will bring global average emissions per capita down by as much as 8% in 2025 and 9% in by 2030.
“The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,” Figueres said.
The report does not directly assess implications for temperature change by the end of the century under the INDCs because information on emissions beyond 2030 is required. However, other independent analyses have, based on a range of assumptions, methodologies and data sources, attempted to estimate the impact of the INDCs on temperature leading to a range of average estimates below, at or above 3 degrees C. Importantly all deliver more or less similar emission levels in 2025 and 2030 and all confirm that the INDCs, if fully implemented, are an important advance on previous scenarios.
“These plans set a determined course, clearly recognizing that successful climate action achieves not only low emissions but a host of other economic and social benefits for governments, citizens and business,” Figueres said. “Backed by financial support for developing countries, a clear long term destination of climate neutrality in the second half of the century and a ratcheting up of ambition in a structured, transparent and timely way, the INDCs provide an inspiring part of what will become the Paris package.”
Key findings
• The majority of INDCs are national in scope and some include immediate action, underlining government recognition of the urgency to raise ambition before as well as after 2020, when the new climate change agreement takes effect.
• The report shows that the INDCs represent a substantial slowdown in emissions growth achieved in a cost effective way, making it still possible and affordable by 2030 to stay below a 2 degree temperature rise.
• As well as the impact on per capita emissions, the report shows that INDCs are expected to slow emissions growth by approximately a third for 2010–2030 compared to the period 1990–2010, delivering emission reductions of around 4Gt by 2030 compared to pre-INDC scenarios.
• All industrialized country INDCs and many developing country INDCs are unconditional. Conditional contributions represent about 25% of the total range of emission reductions.
• All INDCs cover Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and many also cover methane, nitrous oxide and other potent greenhouse gases.
Various civil society organizations (CSOs) and climate activists were quick to release their reactions about the report on the INDCs which believes to serve as a major basis for the international climate deal to be negotiated in Paris in December.
They said the report downplays the big gap between what countries have committed so far and what it will actually take to avoid catastrophic climate change. The findings of the independent CSO review indicate that there is an estimated 19-gigaton gap between the aggregated country targets for reductions on the one hand and the requirements for a 66% chance of keeping temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius.
“Rather than ‘down-payments’ on ambition, we need deep cuts now: rich developed countries must make at least 80% emission cuts at home and help the poor develop cleanly in order meet their fair share of the bill. If not, it will be millions of the poorest families on the front lines of the climate crisis who have to pay the price. But if they did undertake their fair share of climate action, it would herald the end our addiction to polluting energy today, not tomorrow, protect our food systems and help build a safer, cleaner and a fairer world for us all,” said Asad Rehman, head of international climate at Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The groups also pointed out that the UNFCCC secretariat report did not look into the question of equity and fair sharing of efforts.
“Equity and fairness are vital to unlocking cooperation. Equity and fairness matter to people’s lives. Only by embracing equity can governments in Paris define a pathway towards scaled-up global cooperation and action to secure dignified lives for all in a climate-safe world,” said Lidy Nacpil, coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development.
The groups added that while all countries must accept responsibility for meeting at least their fair share of the global effort to tackle climate change, some countries have a much higher capacity to act than others, due to their higher income and wealth, level of development and access to technologies. Furthermore, some countries have already emitted a great deal for a long time, and thrive from the infrastructure and institutions they have been able to set up because of this.
The UNFCCC statement said that the new climate change agreement to be agreed in Paris can anchor the INDCs in terms of recognition, accountability and adequate support that will encourage the extra, required ambition to emerge. And because greater action will be required over time, it is important to note that the INDCs do not indicate any locking in of the level of global emissions in 2030. Many nations will overachieve on goals set based on what is seen as achievable today.
National contributions can be adjusted upwards over time, especially as mobilization of climate finance and other forms of multilateral cooperation which are catalyzed by the new Paris agreement will allow governments to go further and faster, even before 2030.
photo credit: unfccc
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